MARKET FORECASTING AND COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS
Market and competitive analyses and forecasting are core elements of most Capstan consulting engagements. Collectively they provide a fact-based analysis upon which strategies are formulated, due diligence is founded and financial feasibility is determined.
Capstan market analyses typically involve the sizing and segmenting of a client’s or an industry’s target markets across multiple dimensions, e.g. geographies, trade lanes, industries, commodities, customers and or products.
Competitive analyses typically involve detailed evaluations of a client’s competitive positioning across the markets it serves. A detailed evaluation of an organization’s competitive strengths and weaknesses vs. competitors across the organization’s lines of business, product lines and customers is typically a key element of Capstan’s consulting engagements. Strategic planning related competitive analyses typically involve a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.
Forecasting encompasses the preparation of alternative, market-driven forecasts of activity (cargo tonnages, TEUs, vehicle units, etc.) and financial performance (revenues, expenses, cash flows). Capstan’s forecasting approach is designed to establish the reasonable range of future activity or financial performance across a range of macroeconomic and microeconomic strategic, market, competitive and regulatory scenarios rather than point-estimates based forecasts that invariably prove unreliable.
Illustrative examples of Capstan’s market, competitive and forecasting engagements include:
- Market segmentation analysis to support a due diligence analysis of new port investment
- Competitive analysis of the expanded Panama Canal and the existing North American intermodal rail industry in serving key inland market hinterlands
- Forecasts of the future size composition of the Atlantic Coast container fleet. Market segmentation analysis of a regional market to support the preparation of a long-term capital investment plan and a PPP initiative for a publicly owned container terminal
- Industry, market and SWOT analyses of a port authorities lines of business in support of preparing a strategic plan
- Market segmentation, competitive and landed cost analyses in support of the sale of a marine container terminal to a private investment firm